{"id":6307,"date":"2024-03-25T11:54:10","date_gmt":"2024-03-25T10:54:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lecercledeseconomistes.fr\/articles\/%cat-post-theme%\/finance-currency-if-donald-trump-returns\/"},"modified":"2024-04-02T18:00:03","modified_gmt":"2024-04-02T16:00:03","slug":"finance-currency-if-donald-trump-returns","status":"publish","type":"blog","link":"https:\/\/lecercledeseconomistes.fr\/en\/articles\/society\/finance-currency-if-donald-trump-returns\/","title":{"rendered":"Finance, currency&#8230; if Donald Trump returns?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div class=\"wp-block-group section-content-layout-without-cover is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-not-stacked-on-mobile is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-9d6595d7 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\">\n<div class=\"block--post-meta\" >\n\n    <ul class=\"block--post-meta-list\">\n\n        \n            <li>\n                <p class=\"style-p-secondary-bold\">date<\/p>\n                <time datetime=\"2024-03-25T11:54:10+01:00\"class=\"style-p-secondary-normal\">25 mars 2024<\/time>\n            <\/li>\n\n            <li>\n                <p class=\"style-p-secondary-bold\">update<\/p>\n                <time datetime=\"2024-04-02T18:00:03+02:00\" class=\"style-p-secondary-normal\">2 avril 2024 \u00e0 18:00<\/time>\n            <\/li>\n\n            \n            <li>\n                <p class=\"style-p-secondary-bold\">author<\/p>\n\n                <div class=\"container__authors\">\n\n                    \n                        <a class=\"style-p-secondary-normal\" href=\"https:\/\/lecercledeseconomistes.fr\/en\/presentation\/members-and-authors\/members\/christian-de-boissieu\/\">Christian de Boissieu<\/a>\n                     \n                    \n                <\/div>\n            <\/li>\n            \n        \n            \n            \n            \n\n            \n                <li>\n                    <p class=\"style-p-secondary-bold\">reading time<\/p>\n                                        <p class=\"style-p-secondary-normal\">3 minutes<\/p> \n                <\/li>\n\n            \n\n        \n        \n    <\/ul>\n\n    \n        \n        <div class=\"container-post-social-share\">\n\n            \n<div class=\"block--post-social-share\" >\n\n    \n    <ul class=\"container-socials\">\n\n        <li>\n            <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Flecercledeseconomistes.fr%2Fen%2Farticles%2Fsociety%2Ffinance-currency-if-donald-trump-returns%2F\" title='Partager sur Facebook' target='_blank'>\n                \n                <svg class=\"facebook\" width=\"27\" height=\"26\" viewBox=\"0 0 27 26\" fill=\"none\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\">\n<path class=\"one\" d=\"M25.6539 0.587891H0.814941V25.4269H25.6539V0.587891Z\" stroke=\"#5B5B5B\" stroke-miterlimit=\"10\"\/>\n<path class=\"two\" d=\"M14.272 18.7267V13.6327C14.772 13.6327 15.2328 13.6327 15.6958 13.6267C15.7718 13.6267 15.9031 13.5607 15.9131 13.5077C16.0281 12.8697 16.1249 12.2277 16.2339 11.5437H14.2671C14.2671 11.0247 14.2671 10.5437 14.2671 10.0627C14.2551 9.87274 14.308 9.68435 14.417 9.52832C14.526 9.37229 14.6847 9.25785 14.8672 9.20368C15.0801 9.14115 15.3001 9.10751 15.522 9.10368C15.776 9.08668 16.0332 9.10368 16.2852 9.10368V7.36868C15.8852 7.35068 15.5141 7.33168 15.1401 7.31668C14.8644 7.29425 14.5876 7.28624 14.311 7.29268C13.7675 7.30104 13.2455 7.50737 12.8433 7.87299C12.441 8.23862 12.186 8.73842 12.126 9.27868C12.0574 9.92597 12.0291 10.5769 12.041 11.2277C12.041 11.3277 12.0319 11.4277 12.0259 11.5567H10.1899V13.6347H12.0479V18.7267H14.272Z\" fill=\"#5B5B5B\"\/>\n<\/svg>            <\/a>\n        <\/li>\n        \n\n        <li>\n            <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=Finance, currency&#8230; if Donald Trump returns?&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Flecercledeseconomistes.fr%2Fen%2Farticles%2Fsociety%2Ffinance-currency-if-donald-trump-returns%2F&#038;hashtags=cde\" title='Partager sur Twitter' target='_blank'>\n                \n                <svg class=\"twitter\" width=\"26\" height=\"26\" viewBox=\"0 0 26 26\" fill=\"none\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\">\n<g clip-path=\"url(#clip0_805_2)\">\n  <rect class=\"background\" width=\"100%\" height=\"100%\" fill=\"white\"\/>\n  <path class=\"one\" d=\"M0.5 0H0V25.839H25.839V0H0.5ZM24.839 24.839H1V1H24.839V24.839Z\" fill=\"#5C5B5C\"\/>\n  <path class=\"two\" d=\"M7.035 17.9391C6.863 18.1171 6.693 18.2961 6.5 18.4961C6.792 18.4961 7.05 18.4881 7.308 18.4991C7.445 18.5051 7.534 18.4591 7.624 18.3651C8.934 17.0021 10.25 15.6431 11.559 14.2791C11.649 14.1851 11.68 14.2091 11.745 14.2931C12.799 15.6621 13.856 17.0281 14.909 18.3971C14.965 18.4701 15.023 18.4971 15.116 18.4971C16.2 18.4941 17.285 18.4951 18.369 18.4941C18.41 18.4941 18.455 18.5081 18.5 18.4751C18.491 18.4601 18.484 18.4461 18.475 18.4331C17.967 17.7801 17.459 17.1271 16.95 16.4741C15.857 15.0701 14.764 13.6651 13.669 12.2631C13.615 12.1941 13.608 12.1541 13.676 12.0861C13.953 11.8081 14.221 11.5231 14.493 11.2411C15.534 10.1631 16.576 9.08512 17.617 8.00612C17.771 7.84612 17.924 7.68612 18.099 7.50212C17.814 7.50212 17.56 7.50912 17.308 7.49912C17.177 7.49412 17.091 7.53712 17.004 7.62812C15.749 8.93112 14.49 10.2301 13.235 11.5331C13.168 11.6031 13.146 11.5891 13.095 11.5221C12.077 10.2121 11.057 8.90312 10.04 7.59212C9.986 7.52212 9.93 7.50012 9.844 7.50012C8.777 7.50212 7.71 7.50112 6.643 7.50212C6.603 7.50212 6.557 7.48512 6.517 7.52512C6.53 7.54312 6.542 7.56012 6.554 7.57712C8.082 9.55512 9.609 11.5331 11.139 13.5091C11.198 13.5851 11.209 13.6261 11.133 13.7041C9.764 15.1131 8.399 16.5251 7.034 17.9371L7.035 17.9391ZM8.059 8.30412C8.043 8.28412 8.03 8.26212 8.014 8.24012C8.048 8.19612 8.095 8.21612 8.135 8.21612C8.596 8.21412 9.057 8.21812 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stroke-miterlimit=\"10\"\/>\n<path class=\"two\" d=\"M18.1309 13.5412C18.1539 15.1962 18.144 16.8512 18.144 18.5062C18.1386 18.5827 18.1283 18.6588 18.1138 18.7342C17.4238 18.7342 16.743 18.7342 16.063 18.7342C15.826 18.7342 15.8902 18.5472 15.8892 18.4182C15.8892 17.2602 15.8892 16.1022 15.8892 14.9432C15.8892 14.8222 15.8892 14.7002 15.8892 14.5792C15.8913 14.3853 15.8548 14.1928 15.7817 14.0132C15.7087 13.8336 15.6002 13.6703 15.4634 13.5329C15.3265 13.3955 15.1637 13.2867 14.9844 13.2129C14.805 13.1391 14.6129 13.1018 14.4189 13.1032C14.005 13.0978 13.6058 13.2566 13.3086 13.5448C13.0114 13.833 12.8404 14.2272 12.833 14.6412C12.816 15.8412 12.8332 17.0412 12.8252 18.2482C12.8252 18.7912 12.8952 18.7332 12.3252 18.7362C11.7552 18.7392 11.1838 18.7362 10.5918 18.7362V11.1462H12.8198V12.1112C12.9688 11.9552 13.0519 11.8742 13.1279 11.7882C14.1279 10.6732 17.1092 10.5882 17.9092 12.5482C18.0427 12.863 18.1176 13.1994 18.1309 13.5412Z\" fill=\"#5B5B5B\"\/>\n<path class=\"three\"d=\"M8.09164 7.27812C8.36496 7.27255 8.63415 7.34853 8.86411 7.49635C9.09406 7.64417 9.27472 7.85713 9.38315 8.10808C9.49157 8.35903 9.52247 8.63659 9.4725 8.90535C9.42253 9.17412 9.29376 9.4219 9.10239 9.61711C8.91101 9.81232 8.66601 9.94611 8.39829 10.0014C8.13056 10.0567 7.85251 10.031 7.59946 9.92755C7.34641 9.82413 7.12974 9.64767 6.97739 9.42069C6.82504 9.19371 6.74385 8.92649 6.74399 8.65312C6.73999 8.47373 6.77175 8.29535 6.83774 8.12849C6.90373 7.96163 7.00265 7.80966 7.12827 7.68153C7.25388 7.5534 7.40367 7.4517 7.56918 7.38242C7.7347 7.31314 7.91221 7.27767 8.09164 7.27812Z\" fill=\"#5B5B5B\"\/>\n<path class=\"four\"d=\"M9.22314 11.1509V18.7169H7V11.1509H9.22314Z\" fill=\"#5B5B5B\"\/>\n<\/svg>            <\/a>\n\n        <\/li>\n        \n<\/ul>\n\n  \n    \n    \n<\/div>\n        <\/div>\n\n\n        \n\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\">\n<p><strong>Donald Trump&#8217;s candidacy for the US presidential election in November has not yet been declared but seems inevitable. What would happen financially and monetarily if the former president returned to business in Washington? Christian de Boissieu analyzes the elements of the possible scenario<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-medium\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The purpose of this column is not to take sides on the upcoming U.S. presidential election. The idea is only to evoke some foreseeable monetary and financial consequences of Donald Trump&#8217;s possible return to the White House.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-medium\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>For U.S. foreign economic policy, there is a strong continuity between Republicans and Democrats. The persistence of the trade conflict with China, ignorance of the WTO (since Obama, the Americans have not appointed their judge to the Dispute Settlement Body), unilateral and protectionist initiatives such as the IRA, gentle insouciance with regard to the external deficit &#8220;protected&#8221; by the privileges of the dollar, cavalier attitude towards the G7 or G20 high masses&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-medium\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Commercial, energy and ecological hardening<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-medium\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>If Donald Trump were elected again at the end of the year, there would certainly be some shifts. One might expect a tightening of trade policy towards China. Above all, the United States could once again withdraw from the Paris Agreement as it did during Trump&#8217;s first term, which would be very bad news at the global level for the energy and ecological transition, its implementation and its financing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-medium\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>On the domestic front, Trump II would decide on new tax cuts (too bad for the budget deficit and for inequality!) and would revive the production of fossil fuels (too bad for the climate!). His top advisers have already opened a debate about the Fed and monetary policy that deserves special attention.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-medium\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>While Biden and his Democratic administration have so far been respectful of the central bank&#8217;s independence, probably thanks to the restraint of Janet Yellen, former Fed Chair and current Treasury Secretary, Trump has not stopped during his term in office to attack Jerome Powell, Fed chairman since February 2018 and Republican though he may be. This has not really changed the policy of the central bank, which raised its key interest rate seven times between March 2017 and January 2019. During Trump&#8217;s term in office, the Fed spent two years tightening monetary policy (2017-2018), before easing it for two years (2019-2020).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-medium\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Fiscal Balance &#8211; Monetary Policies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-medium\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Since then, there has been a rebound in inflation and the inevitable tightening of monetary policy. After several months of stability in the key rate, the Fed has just hinted that three cuts could take place by the end of 2024. One can imagine that if Trump returns, and with him the tax cuts, monetary policy will have to be vigilant, perhaps even restrictive as early as 2025, to &#8220;offset&#8221; a fiscal and fiscal policy that would then be clearly expansive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-medium\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>In any case, the subject occupies Trump&#8217;s team, which is still revanchist towards Powell. Steven Moore, one of his advisers, bluntly said: <em>&#8220;We need a new Fed chairman who is pro-growth, for dollar stability and low inflation, which we haven&#8217;t had in the last three years.&#8221;<\/em> As if Powell was solely responsible for the economic performance of the United States under Biden. These results are also very satisfactory for growth and employment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-medium\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>While Powell&#8217;s term runs until February 2026, it is especially inelegant to seek to shorten it through political pressures incompatible with the independence of the central bank. Already, names are circulating to replace him in the event of a Republican victory. All this is premature, especially since the future composition of Congress will have to approve the nominations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-medium\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Monetary policy does not only act on and via interest rates. It also has an impact on the exchange rate. In 2017-2018, the dollar had followed the Fed&#8217;s rate hikes. In 2019, the movement remained parallel but downwards. In practice, the dollar&#8217;s exchange rate depends more intensely on the Fed&#8217;s policy than on the fiscal and fiscal policy pursued by the administration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-medium\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Deregulation measures<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-medium\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>If Trump returns, we can also expect banking and financial deregulation measures, despite <a href=\"\/?cat-post-theme=des-banques-fragilisees-et-ou-des-marches-deboussoles\">the collapse of SVB<\/a> and other California regional banks in 2022-2023. To be sure, these bank failures occurred under Biden. But they stem largely from regulatory and supervisory failures inspired by the spirit and some of the measures of Trump I. If he returns, will the Republican candidate learn from it? Or will he go back to the path he opened by calling into question part of the 2010 banking reform? All bets are off.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-medium\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>A final illustration touches on a more restricted but highly symbolic domain. To respond to the rise of crypto-assets, central banks around the world are preparing for the arrival of their digital currency. Donald Trump has forcefully stated that, if he returns to office, he will end the Fed and Treasury&#8217;s experiments with the creation of a digital dollar. Because, in his view, a digital central bank currency risks threatening freedoms and the protection of personal data because of its intrusiveness. In such a scenario, the US authorities will have to look closely at whether the dollar, still the dominant reserve currency, can stay away from a move that would involve the euro, the yuan&#8230; The future of the international role of the greenback and, for the United States, the privileges associated with that role, especially the extraterritoriality of U.S. rules, would be at stake.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":6119,"parent":0,"template":"wp-custom-template-single-post-classic","cat-post-theme":[188],"cat-post-type":[135],"cat-blog-event-media-type-serie":[],"class_list":["post-6307","blog","type-blog","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","cat-post-theme-society","cat-post-type-news"],"acf":{"is_featured_post":false,"display_twitter_hastags":false,"twitter_hastags":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Finance, currency... if Donald Trump returns? - Le cercle des \u00e9conomistes<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/lecercledeseconomistes.fr\/en\/articles\/society\/finance-currency-if-donald-trump-returns\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Finance, currency... if Donald Trump returns? - Le cercle des \u00e9conomistes\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Donald Trump&#8217;s candidacy for the US presidential election in November has not yet been declared but seems inevitable. 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What would happen financially and monetarily if the former president returned to business in Washington? Christian de Boissieu analyzes the elements of the possible scenario The purpose of this column is not to take sides on the [&hellip;]","og_url":"https:\/\/lecercledeseconomistes.fr\/en\/articles\/society\/finance-currency-if-donald-trump-returns\/","og_site_name":"Le cercle des \u00e9conomistes","article_modified_time":"2024-04-02T16:00:03+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1480,"height":335,"url":"https:\/\/lecercledeseconomistes.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Banniere-Site-Cercle76.png","type":"image\/png"}],"twitter_card":"summary_large_image","schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/lecercledeseconomistes.fr\/en\/articles\/society\/finance-currency-if-donald-trump-returns\/","url":"https:\/\/lecercledeseconomistes.fr\/en\/articles\/society\/finance-currency-if-donald-trump-returns\/","name":"Finance, currency... if Donald Trump returns? - Le cercle des \u00e9conomistes","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/lecercledeseconomistes.fr\/en\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/lecercledeseconomistes.fr\/en\/articles\/society\/finance-currency-if-donald-trump-returns\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/lecercledeseconomistes.fr\/en\/articles\/society\/finance-currency-if-donald-trump-returns\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/lecercledeseconomistes.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Banniere-Site-Cercle76.png","datePublished":"2024-03-25T10:54:10+00:00","dateModified":"2024-04-02T16:00:03+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/lecercledeseconomistes.fr\/en\/articles\/society\/finance-currency-if-donald-trump-returns\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/lecercledeseconomistes.fr\/en\/articles\/society\/finance-currency-if-donald-trump-returns\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/lecercledeseconomistes.fr\/en\/articles\/society\/finance-currency-if-donald-trump-returns\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/lecercledeseconomistes.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Banniere-Site-Cercle76.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/lecercledeseconomistes.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Banniere-Site-Cercle76.png","width":1480,"height":335},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/lecercledeseconomistes.fr\/en\/articles\/society\/finance-currency-if-donald-trump-returns\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/lecercledeseconomistes.fr\/en\/home\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Articles","item":"https:\/\/lecercledeseconomistes.fr\/en\/articles\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"name":"Macroeconomics &amp; 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