{"id":6311,"date":"2024-03-27T11:07:44","date_gmt":"2024-03-27T10:07:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lecercledeseconomistes.fr\/articles\/%cat-post-theme%\/should-the-public-deficit-be-corrected\/"},"modified":"2024-03-29T20:49:23","modified_gmt":"2024-03-29T19:49:23","slug":"should-the-public-deficit-be-corrected","status":"publish","type":"blog","link":"https:\/\/lecercledeseconomistes.fr\/en\/articles\/macroeconomics-public-policy\/should-the-public-deficit-be-corrected\/","title":{"rendered":"Should the public deficit be corrected?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div class=\"wp-block-group section-content-layout-without-cover is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-not-stacked-on-mobile is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-9d6595d7 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\">\n<div class=\"block--post-meta\" >\n\n    <ul class=\"block--post-meta-list\">\n\n        \n            <li>\n                <p class=\"style-p-secondary-bold\">date<\/p>\n                <time datetime=\"2024-03-27T11:07:44+01:00\"class=\"style-p-secondary-normal\">27 mars 2024<\/time>\n            <\/li>\n\n            <li>\n                <p class=\"style-p-secondary-bold\">update<\/p>\n                <time datetime=\"2024-03-29T20:49:23+01:00\" class=\"style-p-secondary-normal\">29 mars 2024 \u00e0 20:49<\/time>\n            <\/li>\n\n            \n            <li>\n                <p class=\"style-p-secondary-bold\">author<\/p>\n\n                <div class=\"container__authors\">\n\n                    \n                        <a class=\"style-p-secondary-normal\" href=\"https:\/\/lecercledeseconomistes.fr\/en\/presentation\/members-and-authors\/members\/patrick-artus\/\">Patrick Artus<\/a>\n                     \n                    \n                <\/div>\n            <\/li>\n            \n        \n            \n            \n            \n\n            \n                <li>\n                    <p class=\"style-p-secondary-bold\">reading time<\/p>\n                                        <p class=\"style-p-secondary-normal\">3 minutes<\/p> \n                <\/li>\n\n            \n\n        \n        \n    <\/ul>\n\n    \n        \n        <div class=\"container-post-social-share\">\n\n            \n<div class=\"block--post-social-share\" >\n\n    \n    <ul class=\"container-socials\">\n\n        <li>\n            <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Flecercledeseconomistes.fr%2Fen%2Farticles%2Fmacroeconomics-public-policy%2Fshould-the-public-deficit-be-corrected%2F\" title='Partager sur Facebook' target='_blank'>\n                \n                <svg class=\"facebook\" width=\"27\" height=\"26\" viewBox=\"0 0 27 26\" fill=\"none\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\">\n<path class=\"one\" d=\"M25.6539 0.587891H0.814941V25.4269H25.6539V0.587891Z\" 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corrected?&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Flecercledeseconomistes.fr%2Fen%2Farticles%2Fmacroeconomics-public-policy%2Fshould-the-public-deficit-be-corrected%2F&#038;hashtags=cde\" title='Partager sur Twitter' target='_blank'>\n                \n                <svg class=\"twitter\" width=\"26\" height=\"26\" viewBox=\"0 0 26 26\" fill=\"none\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\">\n<g clip-path=\"url(#clip0_805_2)\">\n  <rect class=\"background\" width=\"100%\" height=\"100%\" fill=\"white\"\/>\n  <path class=\"one\" d=\"M0.5 0H0V25.839H25.839V0H0.5ZM24.839 24.839H1V1H24.839V24.839Z\" fill=\"#5C5B5C\"\/>\n  <path class=\"two\" d=\"M7.035 17.9391C6.863 18.1171 6.693 18.2961 6.5 18.4961C6.792 18.4961 7.05 18.4881 7.308 18.4991C7.445 18.5051 7.534 18.4591 7.624 18.3651C8.934 17.0021 10.25 15.6431 11.559 14.2791C11.649 14.1851 11.68 14.2091 11.745 14.2931C12.799 15.6621 13.856 17.0281 14.909 18.3971C14.965 18.4701 15.023 18.4971 15.116 18.4971C16.2 18.4941 17.285 18.4951 18.369 18.4941C18.41 18.4941 18.455 18.5081 18.5 18.4751C18.491 18.4601 18.484 18.4461 18.475 18.4331C17.967 17.7801 17.459 17.1271 16.95 16.4741C15.857 15.0701 14.764 13.6651 13.669 12.2631C13.615 12.1941 13.608 12.1541 13.676 12.0861C13.953 11.8081 14.221 11.5231 14.493 11.2411C15.534 10.1631 16.576 9.08512 17.617 8.00612C17.771 7.84612 17.924 7.68612 18.099 7.50212C17.814 7.50212 17.56 7.50912 17.308 7.49912C17.177 7.49412 17.091 7.53712 17.004 7.62812C15.749 8.93112 14.49 10.2301 13.235 11.5331C13.168 11.6031 13.146 11.5891 13.095 11.5221C12.077 10.2121 11.057 8.90312 10.04 7.59212C9.986 7.52212 9.93 7.50012 9.844 7.50012C8.777 7.50212 7.71 7.50112 6.643 7.50212C6.603 7.50212 6.557 7.48512 6.517 7.52512C6.53 7.54312 6.542 7.56012 6.554 7.57712C8.082 9.55512 9.609 11.5331 11.139 13.5091C11.198 13.5851 11.209 13.6261 11.133 13.7041C9.764 15.1131 8.399 16.5251 7.034 17.9371L7.035 17.9391ZM8.059 8.30412C8.043 8.28412 8.03 8.26212 8.014 8.24012C8.048 8.19612 8.095 8.21612 8.135 8.21612C8.596 8.21412 9.057 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class=\"three\"d=\"M8.09164 7.27812C8.36496 7.27255 8.63415 7.34853 8.86411 7.49635C9.09406 7.64417 9.27472 7.85713 9.38315 8.10808C9.49157 8.35903 9.52247 8.63659 9.4725 8.90535C9.42253 9.17412 9.29376 9.4219 9.10239 9.61711C8.91101 9.81232 8.66601 9.94611 8.39829 10.0014C8.13056 10.0567 7.85251 10.031 7.59946 9.92755C7.34641 9.82413 7.12974 9.64767 6.97739 9.42069C6.82504 9.19371 6.74385 8.92649 6.74399 8.65312C6.73999 8.47373 6.77175 8.29535 6.83774 8.12849C6.90373 7.96163 7.00265 7.80966 7.12827 7.68153C7.25388 7.5534 7.40367 7.4517 7.56918 7.38242C7.7347 7.31314 7.91221 7.27767 8.09164 7.27812Z\" fill=\"#5B5B5B\"\/>\n<path class=\"four\"d=\"M9.22314 11.1509V18.7169H7V11.1509H9.22314Z\" fill=\"#5B5B5B\"\/>\n<\/svg>            <\/a>\n\n        <\/li>\n        \n<\/ul>\n\n  \n    \n    \n<\/div>\n        <\/div>\n\n\n        \n\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\">\n<p><strong>Faced with a French public deficit that exceeds forecasts and highlights an economic outlook that is more restrictive than expected, Patrick Artus identifies the four possible fiscal policy options and what they imply.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-medium\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>France&#8217;s public deficit reached 5.6% of Gross Domestic Product in 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-medium\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>If we use a reasonable growth forecast, for the period 2024-2027, we arrive at 0.8% annual growth on average, while the French government was counting on 1.5% average growth over these four years. This will result in a deficit of 1.8% compared to the forecast level, and therefore a public deficit in 2027 of between 4% and 4.5% of GDP and not 2.7% as initially expected by the government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-medium\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The important question that will then arise is: should we correct this excess public deficit (the public deficit initially forecast was 4.9% of GDP in 2023 and 4.4% of GDP in 2024), which will probably reach around 1.5 points of GDP in 2027?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-medium\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Four Fiscal Policy Tracks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-medium\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>We believe that four avenues of fiscal policy are available a priori: accept the increase in the public deficit; combat it by reducing public spending; fight it with higher taxes; respond with a change in the structure of public expenditure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-medium\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Some will point to the low level of the 10-year interest rate differential between France and Germany (44 basis points) or the example of the United States (where the public deficit amounted to 7.5% of Gross Domestic Product in fiscal year 2023) to defend the idea that there is no need to reduce the public deficit. This strategy seems very dangerous to us: with the data present, the public debt ratio would increase by 3.5 points per year, which would quickly become unbearable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-medium\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Reducing public spending<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-medium\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The second path of fiscal policy is then to reduce public spending enough to bring the public deficit down to the desired level (2.7% of GDP in 2027), and the third track is to increase the tax burden, again to correct the public deficit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-medium\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The first problem with both of these policies is that they reduce growth; as a result, it is necessary to reduce public spending by 2 percentage points of GDP or increase the tax burden by 2 percentage points of GDP per year, after taking into account the effect on growth in order to reduce the public deficit by 1 percentage point of GDP. This means that, if these policies are put in place, France&#8217;s growth will be reduced from 0.8% per year between 2024 and 2027 to 0%, there would be a stagnation over 4 years of activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-medium\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The second problem with these two policies is that the reduction in public spending naturally focuses mainly on future spending (research and development, education, aid for reindustrialization, energy transition) and the increase in taxes on taxes whose reduction had made France more competitive (with the  <em>flat tax<\/em>  on income from capital, the abolition of the wealth tax).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-medium\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Focusing on the future<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-medium\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>We can therefore think that neither the reduction of public spending nor the increase in taxes are policies that must be adopted to correct France&#8217;s public deficits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-medium\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>There is one last option: gradually, without generating a sudden shock, increase the weight of future spending (research and development, aid for the energy transition or relocation, education and vocational training spending) and reduce the weight of social protection spending (retirement, health, unemployment compensation) in total public spending.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-medium\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Using the stimulation of the supply of goods and services and not the contraction of public spending or the increase in taxation to reduce the public deficit allows that it is the improvement of growth that is at work to reduce the public deficit and not the contraction of public spending and therefore that of activity. This policy of substituting future spending for social protection spending is also favourable from the point of view of intergenerational equity.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":6159,"parent":0,"template":"wp-custom-template-single-post-classic","cat-post-theme":[134],"cat-post-type":[135],"cat-blog-event-media-type-serie":[],"class_list":["post-6311","blog","type-blog","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","cat-post-theme-macroeconomics-public-policy","cat-post-type-news"],"acf":{"is_featured_post":false,"display_twitter_hastags":false,"twitter_hastags":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Should the public deficit be corrected? - Le cercle des \u00e9conomistes<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/lecercledeseconomistes.fr\/en\/articles\/macroeconomics-public-policy\/should-the-public-deficit-be-corrected\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Should the public deficit be corrected? - Le cercle des \u00e9conomistes\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Faced with a French public deficit that exceeds forecasts and highlights an economic outlook that is more restrictive than expected, Patrick Artus identifies the four possible fiscal policy options and what they imply. 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France&#8217;s public deficit reached 5.6% of Gross Domestic Product in 2023. 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