{"id":6314,"date":"2024-01-29T14:53:28","date_gmt":"2024-01-29T13:53:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lecercledeseconomistes.fr\/articles\/%cat-post-theme%\/is-the-ecb-still-credible\/"},"modified":"2024-04-02T18:08:47","modified_gmt":"2024-04-02T16:08:47","slug":"is-the-ecb-still-credible","status":"publish","type":"blog","link":"https:\/\/lecercledeseconomistes.fr\/en\/articles\/finance-en\/is-the-ecb-still-credible\/","title":{"rendered":"Is the ECB still credible?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div class=\"wp-block-group section-content-layout-without-cover is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-not-stacked-on-mobile is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-9d6595d7 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\">\n<div class=\"block--post-meta\" >\n\n    <ul class=\"block--post-meta-list\">\n\n        \n            <li>\n                <p class=\"style-p-secondary-bold\">date<\/p>\n                <time datetime=\"2024-01-29T14:53:28+01:00\"class=\"style-p-secondary-normal\">29 janvier 2024<\/time>\n            <\/li>\n\n            <li>\n                <p class=\"style-p-secondary-bold\">update<\/p>\n                <time datetime=\"2024-04-02T18:08:47+02:00\" class=\"style-p-secondary-normal\">2 avril 2024 \u00e0 18:08<\/time>\n            <\/li>\n\n            \n            <li>\n                <p class=\"style-p-secondary-bold\">author<\/p>\n\n                <div class=\"container__authors\">\n\n                    \n                        <a class=\"style-p-secondary-normal\" href=\"https:\/\/lecercledeseconomistes.fr\/en\/presentation\/members-and-authors\/emeritus-members\/jean-paul-betbeze\/\">Jean-Paul Betb\u00e8ze<\/a>\n                     \n                    \n                <\/div>\n            <\/li>\n            \n        \n            \n            \n            \n\n            \n                <li>\n                    <p class=\"style-p-secondary-bold\">reading time<\/p>\n                                        <p class=\"style-p-secondary-normal\">3 minutes<\/p> \n                <\/li>\n\n            \n\n        \n        \n    <\/ul>\n\n    \n        \n        <div class=\"container-post-social-share\">\n\n            \n<div class=\"block--post-social-share\" >\n\n    \n    <ul class=\"container-socials\">\n\n        <li>\n            <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Flecercledeseconomistes.fr%2Fen%2Farticles%2Ffinance-en%2Fis-the-ecb-still-credible%2F\" title='Partager sur Facebook' target='_blank'>\n                \n                <svg class=\"facebook\" width=\"27\" height=\"26\" viewBox=\"0 0 27 26\" fill=\"none\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\">\n<path class=\"one\" d=\"M25.6539 0.587891H0.814941V25.4269H25.6539V0.587891Z\" stroke=\"#5B5B5B\" stroke-miterlimit=\"10\"\/>\n<path class=\"two\" d=\"M14.272 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18.4751C18.491 18.4601 18.484 18.4461 18.475 18.4331C17.967 17.7801 17.459 17.1271 16.95 16.4741C15.857 15.0701 14.764 13.6651 13.669 12.2631C13.615 12.1941 13.608 12.1541 13.676 12.0861C13.953 11.8081 14.221 11.5231 14.493 11.2411C15.534 10.1631 16.576 9.08512 17.617 8.00612C17.771 7.84612 17.924 7.68612 18.099 7.50212C17.814 7.50212 17.56 7.50912 17.308 7.49912C17.177 7.49412 17.091 7.53712 17.004 7.62812C15.749 8.93112 14.49 10.2301 13.235 11.5331C13.168 11.6031 13.146 11.5891 13.095 11.5221C12.077 10.2121 11.057 8.90312 10.04 7.59212C9.986 7.52212 9.93 7.50012 9.844 7.50012C8.777 7.50212 7.71 7.50112 6.643 7.50212C6.603 7.50212 6.557 7.48512 6.517 7.52512C6.53 7.54312 6.542 7.56012 6.554 7.57712C8.082 9.55512 9.609 11.5331 11.139 13.5091C11.198 13.5851 11.209 13.6261 11.133 13.7041C9.764 15.1131 8.399 16.5251 7.034 17.9371L7.035 17.9391ZM8.059 8.30412C8.043 8.28412 8.03 8.26212 8.014 8.24012C8.048 8.19612 8.095 8.21612 8.135 8.21612C8.596 8.21412 9.057 8.21812 9.518 8.21312C9.621 8.21212 9.685 8.24212 9.746 8.32212C10.664 9.50912 11.585 10.6941 12.505 11.8791C13.993 13.7961 15.482 15.7121 16.97 17.6291C16.99 17.6551 17.008 17.6831 17.044 17.7351C16.504 17.7351 15.991 17.7351 15.478 17.7351C15.413 17.7351 15.387 17.6921 15.356 17.6521C14.356 16.3711 13.357 15.0891 12.357 13.8081C10.925 11.9731 9.492 10.1391 8.059 8.30412Z\" fill=\"#5C5B5C\"\/>\n<\/g>\n<\/svg>\n            <\/a>\n        <\/li>\n        \n\n        <li>\n            <a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/sharing\/share-offsite\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Flecercledeseconomistes.fr%2Fen%2Farticles%2Ffinance-en%2Fis-the-ecb-still-credible%2F\" title='Partager sur Linkedin' target='_blank'>\n                \n                <svg class=\"linkedin\" width=\"25\" height=\"26\" viewBox=\"0 0 25 26\" fill=\"none\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\">\n<path class=\"one\" d=\"M24.8649 0.587891H0.0258789V25.4269H24.8649V0.587891Z\" stroke=\"#5B5B5B\" stroke-miterlimit=\"10\"\/>\n<path class=\"two\" d=\"M18.1309 13.5412C18.1539 15.1962 18.144 16.8512 18.144 18.5062C18.1386 18.5827 18.1283 18.6588 18.1138 18.7342C17.4238 18.7342 16.743 18.7342 16.063 18.7342C15.826 18.7342 15.8902 18.5472 15.8892 18.4182C15.8892 17.2602 15.8892 16.1022 15.8892 14.9432C15.8892 14.8222 15.8892 14.7002 15.8892 14.5792C15.8913 14.3853 15.8548 14.1928 15.7817 14.0132C15.7087 13.8336 15.6002 13.6703 15.4634 13.5329C15.3265 13.3955 15.1637 13.2867 14.9844 13.2129C14.805 13.1391 14.6129 13.1018 14.4189 13.1032C14.005 13.0978 13.6058 13.2566 13.3086 13.5448C13.0114 13.833 12.8404 14.2272 12.833 14.6412C12.816 15.8412 12.8332 17.0412 12.8252 18.2482C12.8252 18.7912 12.8952 18.7332 12.3252 18.7362C11.7552 18.7392 11.1838 18.7362 10.5918 18.7362V11.1462H12.8198V12.1112C12.9688 11.9552 13.0519 11.8742 13.1279 11.7882C14.1279 10.6732 17.1092 10.5882 17.9092 12.5482C18.0427 12.863 18.1176 13.1994 18.1309 13.5412Z\" fill=\"#5B5B5B\"\/>\n<path class=\"three\"d=\"M8.09164 7.27812C8.36496 7.27255 8.63415 7.34853 8.86411 7.49635C9.09406 7.64417 9.27472 7.85713 9.38315 8.10808C9.49157 8.35903 9.52247 8.63659 9.4725 8.90535C9.42253 9.17412 9.29376 9.4219 9.10239 9.61711C8.91101 9.81232 8.66601 9.94611 8.39829 10.0014C8.13056 10.0567 7.85251 10.031 7.59946 9.92755C7.34641 9.82413 7.12974 9.64767 6.97739 9.42069C6.82504 9.19371 6.74385 8.92649 6.74399 8.65312C6.73999 8.47373 6.77175 8.29535 6.83774 8.12849C6.90373 7.96163 7.00265 7.80966 7.12827 7.68153C7.25388 7.5534 7.40367 7.4517 7.56918 7.38242C7.7347 7.31314 7.91221 7.27767 8.09164 7.27812Z\" fill=\"#5B5B5B\"\/>\n<path class=\"four\"d=\"M9.22314 11.1509V18.7169H7V11.1509H9.22314Z\" fill=\"#5B5B5B\"\/>\n<\/svg>            <\/a>\n\n        <\/li>\n        \n<\/ul>\n\n  \n    \n    \n<\/div>\n        <\/div>\n\n\n        \n\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\">\n<p><strong>At its last summit meeting in Frankfurt, the European Central Bank left its interest rates unchanged. Continuing the fight against inflation, reacting or not in the face of a complicated international and geopolitical situation, internal criticism&#8230; For Jean-Paul Betbeze, the credibility of a central bank is built and judged over time<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-medium\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>That&#8217;s THE question. The European Central Bank, as expected, did not cut rates on Thursday, January 25. It left its interest rate on main refinancing operations at 4.50%. It faces inflation at 2.9%, to meet its constantly repeated mandate of &#8220;2% in the medium term&#8221;. Nothing has changed, either, on the other aspects of its policy concerning the slow amortisation of its securities portfolios (APP and PEEP). It is therefore continuing, waiting for its restrictive policy to reveal the positive effects it foresees. According to her, wage growth would moderate, by cutting into margins more than by raising selling prices. Is it therefore credible in its strategy to fight inflation, especially since it has announced that it is also avoiding a recession?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-medium\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">&#8220;The criticism of the ECB&#8217;s conservatism is not over&#8221;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-medium\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Because, as always before the decision, the markets&#8217; nervousness was mounting over this rate maintenance, at a time when signs of weakening were worrying, with -0.1% growth in the third quarter. The question was increasingly about the ECB&#8217;s &#8220;prudence&#8221; in the face of this risk of recession, if not its obstinacy. Asked about this risk in her press conference presenting the decisions of the Monetary Policy Council, Christine Lagarde quoted Janet Yellen: &#8220;Two consecutive quarters to declare a recession means forgetting other statistics, notably employment&#8221;. And, in fact, in the euro zone, the unemployment rate rose from 6.5% in July to 6.4% in November. Will the argument suffice? Because we can&#8217;t forget that, during this time, the US economy was growing by +0.8%. The criticism of the ECB&#8217;s conservatism is therefore not over and will depend on the next surveys, in a few weeks&#8217; time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-medium\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Because, as always before the decision, the markets&#8217; nervousness was mounting over this rate maintenance, at a time when signs of weakening were worrying, with -0.1% growth in the third quarter. The question was increasingly about the ECB&#8217;s &#8220;prudence&#8221; in the face of this risk of recession, if not its obstinacy. Asked about this risk in her press conference presenting the decisions of the Monetary Policy Council, Christine Lagarde quoted Janet Yellen: &#8220;Two consecutive quarters to declare a recession means forgetting other statistics, notably employment&#8221;. And, in fact, in the euro zone, the unemployment rate rose from 6.5% in July to 6.4% in November. Will the argument suffice? Because we can&#8217;t forget that, during this time, the US economy was growing by +0.8%. The criticism of the ECB&#8217;s conservatism is therefore not over and will depend on the next surveys, in a few weeks&#8217; time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-medium\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>But President Lagarde was also expected elsewhere, on her responses to the results of a &#8220;survey&#8221;: that of the internal union Ipso, very negative results. The third exercise of its kind, after those on Jean-Claude Trichet in 2011 and Mario Draghi in 2019, it gives him 53% of negative opinions (against 23% positive) for 1,100 respondents. We are far from the 64% of positive judgments for Jean-Claude Trichet and the 76% for Mario Draghi at the end of their mandate, Christine Lagarde being in the middle of hers!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-medium\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A lack of internal enthusiasm?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-medium\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>With aplomb, she replies that in the ECB&#8217;s internal surveys, at least 80% of employees say they are not only satisfied, but even more proud, to work for, and for, the ECB. And that it&#8217;s not about the person.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-medium\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Perhaps indeed the ECB&#8217;s credibility goes beyond inflation figures, in its ability to navigate the troubled waters of this time? Jean-Claude Trichet continued on the path traced by the BUBA, in a more homogeneous eurozone. Mario Draghi avoided the worst of an internal crisis, at the cost of&#8230; with BUBA! Christine Lagarde is steering a more complex and slower package, in the midst of an ecological crisis, a global technological revolution, rising tensions with China, plus a war in Ukraine, plus the one between Israel and Gaza, all after a pandemic. Is it that easy?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-medium\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Maintaining the credibility of the ECB<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-medium\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The credibility of a central bank is built over time, with the quality of its economy, its political support to ensure its independence and the degrees of freedom given to it by its objectives and tools. The ECB is new, its economy slow and policies silent, for the time being. But its German legacy: a single price target, versus price and employment for its competitor the U.S. central bank, has become more burdensome. At each meeting, Mrs Lagarde, like her predecessor, calls for an acceleration towards a banking union and a capital markets union, in other words towards more federalism. This is THE problem of the ECB: an intermediate position for reasons linked to the political compromise of its birth, which finds its limits when, as if by chance, nationalism rises.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-medium\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The credibility of the ECB? More than ever, everyone&#8217;s business.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":5660,"parent":0,"template":"wp-custom-template-single-post-classic","cat-post-theme":[137],"cat-post-type":[135],"cat-blog-event-media-type-serie":[],"class_list":["post-6314","blog","type-blog","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","cat-post-theme-finance-en","cat-post-type-news"],"acf":{"is_featured_post":false,"display_twitter_hastags":false,"twitter_hastags":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Is the ECB still credible? - Le cercle des \u00e9conomistes<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/lecercledeseconomistes.fr\/en\/articles\/finance-en\/is-the-ecb-still-credible\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Is the ECB still credible? - Le cercle des \u00e9conomistes\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"At its last summit meeting in Frankfurt, the European Central Bank left its interest rates unchanged. 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Continuing the fight against inflation, reacting or not in the face of a complicated international and geopolitical situation, internal criticism&#8230; For Jean-Paul Betbeze, the credibility of a central bank is built and judged over time That&#8217;s THE question. 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