{"id":6582,"date":"2023-12-21T11:02:26","date_gmt":"2023-12-21T10:02:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lecercledeseconomistes.fr\/articles\/%cat-post-theme%\/interest-rates-santa-claus-exists\/"},"modified":"2024-04-17T12:37:13","modified_gmt":"2024-04-17T10:37:13","slug":"interest-rates-santa-claus-exists","status":"publish","type":"blog","link":"https:\/\/lecercledeseconomistes.fr\/en\/articles\/finance-en\/interest-rates-santa-claus-exists\/","title":{"rendered":"Interest rates: Santa Claus exists!"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div class=\"wp-block-group section-content-layout-without-cover is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-not-stacked-on-mobile is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-9d6595d7 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\">\n<div class=\"block--post-meta\" >\n\n    <ul class=\"block--post-meta-list\">\n\n        \n            <li>\n                <p class=\"style-p-secondary-bold\">date<\/p>\n                <time datetime=\"2023-12-21T11:02:26+01:00\"class=\"style-p-secondary-normal\">21 d\u00e9cembre 2023<\/time>\n            <\/li>\n\n            <li>\n                <p class=\"style-p-secondary-bold\">update<\/p>\n                <time datetime=\"2024-04-17T12:37:13+02:00\" class=\"style-p-secondary-normal\">17 avril 2024 \u00e0 12:37<\/time>\n            <\/li>\n\n            \n            <li>\n                <p class=\"style-p-secondary-bold\">author<\/p>\n\n                <div class=\"container__authors\">\n\n                    \n                        <a class=\"style-p-secondary-normal\" href=\"https:\/\/lecercledeseconomistes.fr\/en\/presentation\/members-and-authors\/members\/christian-de-boissieu\/\">Christian de Boissieu<\/a>\n                     \n                    \n                <\/div>\n            <\/li>\n            \n        \n            \n            \n            \n\n            \n                <li>\n                    <p class=\"style-p-secondary-bold\">reading time<\/p>\n                                        <p class=\"style-p-secondary-normal\">2 minutes<\/p> \n                <\/li>\n\n            \n\n        \n        \n    <\/ul>\n\n    \n        \n        <div class=\"container-post-social-share\">\n\n            \n<div class=\"block--post-social-share\" >\n\n    \n    <ul class=\"container-socials\">\n\n        <li>\n            <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Flecercledeseconomistes.fr%2Fen%2Farticles%2Ffinance-en%2Finterest-rates-santa-claus-exists%2F\" title='Partager sur Facebook' target='_blank'>\n                \n                <svg class=\"facebook\" width=\"27\" height=\"26\" viewBox=\"0 0 27 26\" fill=\"none\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\">\n<path class=\"one\" d=\"M25.6539 0.587891H0.814941V25.4269H25.6539V0.587891Z\" stroke=\"#5B5B5B\" stroke-miterlimit=\"10\"\/>\n<path class=\"two\" d=\"M14.272 18.7267V13.6327C14.772 13.6327 15.2328 13.6327 15.6958 13.6267C15.7718 13.6267 15.9031 13.5607 15.9131 13.5077C16.0281 12.8697 16.1249 12.2277 16.2339 11.5437H14.2671C14.2671 11.0247 14.2671 10.5437 14.2671 10.0627C14.2551 9.87274 14.308 9.68435 14.417 9.52832C14.526 9.37229 14.6847 9.25785 14.8672 9.20368C15.0801 9.14115 15.3001 9.10751 15.522 9.10368C15.776 9.08668 16.0332 9.10368 16.2852 9.10368V7.36868C15.8852 7.35068 15.5141 7.33168 15.1401 7.31668C14.8644 7.29425 14.5876 7.28624 14.311 7.29268C13.7675 7.30104 13.2455 7.50737 12.8433 7.87299C12.441 8.23862 12.186 8.73842 12.126 9.27868C12.0574 9.92597 12.0291 10.5769 12.041 11.2277C12.041 11.3277 12.0319 11.4277 12.0259 11.5567H10.1899V13.6347H12.0479V18.7267H14.272Z\" fill=\"#5B5B5B\"\/>\n<\/svg>            <\/a>\n        <\/li>\n        \n\n        <li>\n            <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=Interest rates: Santa Claus exists!&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Flecercledeseconomistes.fr%2Fen%2Farticles%2Ffinance-en%2Finterest-rates-santa-claus-exists%2F&#038;hashtags=cde\" title='Partager sur Twitter' target='_blank'>\n                \n                <svg class=\"twitter\" width=\"26\" height=\"26\" viewBox=\"0 0 26 26\" fill=\"none\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\">\n<g clip-path=\"url(#clip0_805_2)\">\n  <rect class=\"background\" width=\"100%\" height=\"100%\" fill=\"white\"\/>\n  <path class=\"one\" d=\"M0.5 0H0V25.839H25.839V0H0.5ZM24.839 24.839H1V1H24.839V24.839Z\" fill=\"#5C5B5C\"\/>\n  <path class=\"two\" d=\"M7.035 17.9391C6.863 18.1171 6.693 18.2961 6.5 18.4961C6.792 18.4961 7.05 18.4881 7.308 18.4991C7.445 18.5051 7.534 18.4591 7.624 18.3651C8.934 17.0021 10.25 15.6431 11.559 14.2791C11.649 14.1851 11.68 14.2091 11.745 14.2931C12.799 15.6621 13.856 17.0281 14.909 18.3971C14.965 18.4701 15.023 18.4971 15.116 18.4971C16.2 18.4941 17.285 18.4951 18.369 18.4941C18.41 18.4941 18.455 18.5081 18.5 18.4751C18.491 18.4601 18.484 18.4461 18.475 18.4331C17.967 17.7801 17.459 17.1271 16.95 16.4741C15.857 15.0701 14.764 13.6651 13.669 12.2631C13.615 12.1941 13.608 12.1541 13.676 12.0861C13.953 11.8081 14.221 11.5231 14.493 11.2411C15.534 10.1631 16.576 9.08512 17.617 8.00612C17.771 7.84612 17.924 7.68612 18.099 7.50212C17.814 7.50212 17.56 7.50912 17.308 7.49912C17.177 7.49412 17.091 7.53712 17.004 7.62812C15.749 8.93112 14.49 10.2301 13.235 11.5331C13.168 11.6031 13.146 11.5891 13.095 11.5221C12.077 10.2121 11.057 8.90312 10.04 7.59212C9.986 7.52212 9.93 7.50012 9.844 7.50012C8.777 7.50212 7.71 7.50112 6.643 7.50212C6.603 7.50212 6.557 7.48512 6.517 7.52512C6.53 7.54312 6.542 7.56012 6.554 7.57712C8.082 9.55512 9.609 11.5331 11.139 13.5091C11.198 13.5851 11.209 13.6261 11.133 13.7041C9.764 15.1131 8.399 16.5251 7.034 17.9371L7.035 17.9391ZM8.059 8.30412C8.043 8.28412 8.03 8.26212 8.014 8.24012C8.048 8.19612 8.095 8.21612 8.135 8.21612C8.596 8.21412 9.057 8.21812 9.518 8.21312C9.621 8.21212 9.685 8.24212 9.746 8.32212C10.664 9.50912 11.585 10.6941 12.505 11.8791C13.993 13.7961 15.482 15.7121 16.97 17.6291C16.99 17.6551 17.008 17.6831 17.044 17.7351C16.504 17.7351 15.991 17.7351 15.478 17.7351C15.413 17.7351 15.387 17.6921 15.356 17.6521C14.356 16.3711 13.357 15.0891 12.357 13.8081C10.925 11.9731 9.492 10.1391 8.059 8.30412Z\" fill=\"#5C5B5C\"\/>\n<\/g>\n<\/svg>\n            <\/a>\n        <\/li>\n        \n\n        <li>\n            <a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/sharing\/share-offsite\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Flecercledeseconomistes.fr%2Fen%2Farticles%2Ffinance-en%2Finterest-rates-santa-claus-exists%2F\" title='Partager sur Linkedin' target='_blank'>\n                \n                <svg class=\"linkedin\" width=\"25\" height=\"26\" viewBox=\"0 0 25 26\" fill=\"none\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\">\n<path class=\"one\" d=\"M24.8649 0.587891H0.0258789V25.4269H24.8649V0.587891Z\" stroke=\"#5B5B5B\" stroke-miterlimit=\"10\"\/>\n<path class=\"two\" d=\"M18.1309 13.5412C18.1539 15.1962 18.144 16.8512 18.144 18.5062C18.1386 18.5827 18.1283 18.6588 18.1138 18.7342C17.4238 18.7342 16.743 18.7342 16.063 18.7342C15.826 18.7342 15.8902 18.5472 15.8892 18.4182C15.8892 17.2602 15.8892 16.1022 15.8892 14.9432C15.8892 14.8222 15.8892 14.7002 15.8892 14.5792C15.8913 14.3853 15.8548 14.1928 15.7817 14.0132C15.7087 13.8336 15.6002 13.6703 15.4634 13.5329C15.3265 13.3955 15.1637 13.2867 14.9844 13.2129C14.805 13.1391 14.6129 13.1018 14.4189 13.1032C14.005 13.0978 13.6058 13.2566 13.3086 13.5448C13.0114 13.833 12.8404 14.2272 12.833 14.6412C12.816 15.8412 12.8332 17.0412 12.8252 18.2482C12.8252 18.7912 12.8952 18.7332 12.3252 18.7362C11.7552 18.7392 11.1838 18.7362 10.5918 18.7362V11.1462H12.8198V12.1112C12.9688 11.9552 13.0519 11.8742 13.1279 11.7882C14.1279 10.6732 17.1092 10.5882 17.9092 12.5482C18.0427 12.863 18.1176 13.1994 18.1309 13.5412Z\" fill=\"#5B5B5B\"\/>\n<path class=\"three\"d=\"M8.09164 7.27812C8.36496 7.27255 8.63415 7.34853 8.86411 7.49635C9.09406 7.64417 9.27472 7.85713 9.38315 8.10808C9.49157 8.35903 9.52247 8.63659 9.4725 8.90535C9.42253 9.17412 9.29376 9.4219 9.10239 9.61711C8.91101 9.81232 8.66601 9.94611 8.39829 10.0014C8.13056 10.0567 7.85251 10.031 7.59946 9.92755C7.34641 9.82413 7.12974 9.64767 6.97739 9.42069C6.82504 9.19371 6.74385 8.92649 6.74399 8.65312C6.73999 8.47373 6.77175 8.29535 6.83774 8.12849C6.90373 7.96163 7.00265 7.80966 7.12827 7.68153C7.25388 7.5534 7.40367 7.4517 7.56918 7.38242C7.7347 7.31314 7.91221 7.27767 8.09164 7.27812Z\" fill=\"#5B5B5B\"\/>\n<path class=\"four\"d=\"M9.22314 11.1509V18.7169H7V11.1509H9.22314Z\" fill=\"#5B5B5B\"\/>\n<\/svg>            <\/a>\n\n        <\/li>\n        \n<\/ul>\n\n  \n    \n    \n<\/div>\n        <\/div>\n\n\n        \n\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\">\n<p><strong>With the fall in long-term rates and the announcement and end of the increase in key rates, optimism is starting to return to the markets, explains Christian de Boissieu, who sees this as a positive move for the real economy, i.e. investment, growth and employment.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:40px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-medium\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>It was enough for central banks to confirm the end of their key rate hikes for optimism to rise in the ranks, while the geopolitical and economic context remains fragile. Of course, inflation is gradually receding, but it remains at the mercy of a new energy or food shock that is difficult to predict. Europe as a whole is likely to escape a recession, but Germany is right in the middle of it. Unemployment is rising in France, probably for a few quarters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:40px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-medium\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The ECB has just published a growth forecast for the eurozone of only 0.6% for 2023 and 0.8% in 2024. Certainly nothing to brag about: the post-Covid catch-up effect has run out. We are going back to the fundamentals, i.e. the notoriously low potential growth in Europe. The full employment and growth of 2023 in the United States (2.6%) make us aware once again of the structural weaknesses of the European continent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:40px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-medium\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Two Approaches<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:40px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-medium\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The difference in the sensitivity of central banks on both sides of the Atlantic also plays a role. There are gaps in communication that reflect different approaches.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:40px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-medium\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The ECB speaks of a &#8220;plateau&#8221; for its key rates, without specifying how long it will last. Everyone has their own prognosis: first drop in March or summer 2024? The ECB&#8217;s caution is justified by its mandate: price stability is its &#8220;main&#8221; objective. Given the uncertainty of geopolitics and its consequences for inflation, the European Central Bank is abandoning the forward-looking guidance of the markets, which has been so frequent for the past fifteen years, in order to reserve total freedom to assess the economic situation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:40px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-medium\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The Fed, according to its bylaws, has a broader mandate. Of course, it must be concerned about price stability, but also about growth, employment and the level of long-term rates. It continues to provide forward-looking guidance to the markets, as it has just announced &#8220;three or four&#8221; cuts in its key rates for 2024. The paradox is therefore that the Fed is more firmly and precisely committed than the ECB to the beginning of the decline in short-term rates, while the US economy is at full employment and inflationary pressures are consequently more prevalent. Difference in mandates, difference in responsiveness. The ECB had been too slow to raise rates in the face of soaring inflation. Out of an abundance of caution, it should not take too long to lower them in the face of the disinflation that is beginning&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:40px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-medium\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Given that a return to 2% inflation per year, the target of advanced market central banks, will take time, some have suggested a 3% target. There is no magic number here. However, it would be inappropriate to move in this direction when the fight against inflation is well underway.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:40px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-medium\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Central banks control very short-term rates through their key rates. Since they have essentially ended their massive bond purchases, they have only an indirect influence on long-term interest rates. These long-term rates have recently fallen sharply with the anticipation of a decline in short-term rates. Public and private borrowers will benefit a little. This is a positive move for the real economy, i.e. investment, growth and employment.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":5600,"parent":0,"template":"wp-custom-template-single-post-classic","cat-post-theme":[137],"cat-post-type":[143],"cat-blog-event-media-type-serie":[],"class_list":["post-6582","blog","type-blog","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","cat-post-theme-finance-en","cat-post-type-book"],"acf":{"is_featured_post":false,"display_twitter_hastags":false,"twitter_hastags":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Interest rates: Santa Claus exists! - Le cercle des \u00e9conomistes<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/lecercledeseconomistes.fr\/en\/articles\/finance-en\/interest-rates-santa-claus-exists\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Interest rates: Santa Claus exists! - Le cercle des \u00e9conomistes\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"With the fall in long-term rates and the announcement and end of the increase in key rates, optimism is starting to return to the markets, explains Christian de Boissieu, who sees this as a positive move for the real economy, i.e. investment, growth and employment. 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