{"id":6583,"date":"2023-12-11T17:44:25","date_gmt":"2023-12-11T16:44:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lecercledeseconomistes.fr\/articles\/%cat-post-theme%\/is-frances-public-debt-sustainable\/"},"modified":"2024-04-17T12:37:12","modified_gmt":"2024-04-17T10:37:12","slug":"is-frances-public-debt-sustainable","status":"publish","type":"blog","link":"https:\/\/lecercledeseconomistes.fr\/en\/articles\/finance-en\/is-frances-public-debt-sustainable\/","title":{"rendered":"Is France&#8217;s public debt sustainable?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div class=\"wp-block-group section-content-layout-without-cover is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-not-stacked-on-mobile is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-9d6595d7 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\">\n<div class=\"block--post-meta\" >\n\n    <ul class=\"block--post-meta-list\">\n\n        \n            <li>\n                <p class=\"style-p-secondary-bold\">date<\/p>\n                <time datetime=\"2023-12-11T17:44:25+01:00\"class=\"style-p-secondary-normal\">11 d\u00e9cembre 2023<\/time>\n            <\/li>\n\n            <li>\n                <p class=\"style-p-secondary-bold\">update<\/p>\n                <time datetime=\"2024-04-17T12:37:12+02:00\" class=\"style-p-secondary-normal\">17 avril 2024 \u00e0 12:37<\/time>\n            <\/li>\n\n            \n            <li>\n                <p class=\"style-p-secondary-bold\">author<\/p>\n\n                <div class=\"container__authors\">\n\n                    \n                        <a class=\"style-p-secondary-normal\" href=\"https:\/\/lecercledeseconomistes.fr\/en\/presentation\/members-and-authors\/authors\/anne-sophie-alsif\/\">Anne-Sophie Alsif<\/a>\n                     \n                    \n                <\/div>\n            <\/li>\n            \n        \n            \n            \n            \n\n            \n                <li>\n                    <p class=\"style-p-secondary-bold\">reading time<\/p>\n                                        <p class=\"style-p-secondary-normal\">2 minutes<\/p> \n                <\/li>\n\n            \n\n        \n        \n    <\/ul>\n\n    \n        \n        <div class=\"container-post-social-share\">\n\n            \n<div class=\"block--post-social-share\" >\n\n    \n    <ul class=\"container-socials\">\n\n        <li>\n            <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Flecercledeseconomistes.fr%2Fen%2Farticles%2Ffinance-en%2Fis-frances-public-debt-sustainable%2F\" title='Partager sur Facebook' target='_blank'>\n                \n                <svg class=\"facebook\" width=\"27\" height=\"26\" viewBox=\"0 0 27 26\" fill=\"none\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\">\n<path class=\"one\" d=\"M25.6539 0.587891H0.814941V25.4269H25.6539V0.587891Z\" stroke=\"#5B5B5B\" stroke-miterlimit=\"10\"\/>\n<path class=\"two\" d=\"M14.272 18.7267V13.6327C14.772 13.6327 15.2328 13.6327 15.6958 13.6267C15.7718 13.6267 15.9031 13.5607 15.9131 13.5077C16.0281 12.8697 16.1249 12.2277 16.2339 11.5437H14.2671C14.2671 11.0247 14.2671 10.5437 14.2671 10.0627C14.2551 9.87274 14.308 9.68435 14.417 9.52832C14.526 9.37229 14.6847 9.25785 14.8672 9.20368C15.0801 9.14115 15.3001 9.10751 15.522 9.10368C15.776 9.08668 16.0332 9.10368 16.2852 9.10368V7.36868C15.8852 7.35068 15.5141 7.33168 15.1401 7.31668C14.8644 7.29425 14.5876 7.28624 14.311 7.29268C13.7675 7.30104 13.2455 7.50737 12.8433 7.87299C12.441 8.23862 12.186 8.73842 12.126 9.27868C12.0574 9.92597 12.0291 10.5769 12.041 11.2277C12.041 11.3277 12.0319 11.4277 12.0259 11.5567H10.1899V13.6347H12.0479V18.7267H14.272Z\" fill=\"#5B5B5B\"\/>\n<\/svg>            <\/a>\n        <\/li>\n        \n\n        <li>\n            <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=Is France&#8217;s public debt sustainable?&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Flecercledeseconomistes.fr%2Fen%2Farticles%2Ffinance-en%2Fis-frances-public-debt-sustainable%2F&#038;hashtags=cde\" title='Partager sur Twitter' target='_blank'>\n                \n                <svg class=\"twitter\" width=\"26\" height=\"26\" viewBox=\"0 0 26 26\" fill=\"none\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\">\n<g clip-path=\"url(#clip0_805_2)\">\n  <rect class=\"background\" width=\"100%\" height=\"100%\" fill=\"white\"\/>\n  <path class=\"one\" d=\"M0.5 0H0V25.839H25.839V0H0.5ZM24.839 24.839H1V1H24.839V24.839Z\" fill=\"#5C5B5C\"\/>\n  <path class=\"two\" d=\"M7.035 17.9391C6.863 18.1171 6.693 18.2961 6.5 18.4961C6.792 18.4961 7.05 18.4881 7.308 18.4991C7.445 18.5051 7.534 18.4591 7.624 18.3651C8.934 17.0021 10.25 15.6431 11.559 14.2791C11.649 14.1851 11.68 14.2091 11.745 14.2931C12.799 15.6621 13.856 17.0281 14.909 18.3971C14.965 18.4701 15.023 18.4971 15.116 18.4971C16.2 18.4941 17.285 18.4951 18.369 18.4941C18.41 18.4941 18.455 18.5081 18.5 18.4751C18.491 18.4601 18.484 18.4461 18.475 18.4331C17.967 17.7801 17.459 17.1271 16.95 16.4741C15.857 15.0701 14.764 13.6651 13.669 12.2631C13.615 12.1941 13.608 12.1541 13.676 12.0861C13.953 11.8081 14.221 11.5231 14.493 11.2411C15.534 10.1631 16.576 9.08512 17.617 8.00612C17.771 7.84612 17.924 7.68612 18.099 7.50212C17.814 7.50212 17.56 7.50912 17.308 7.49912C17.177 7.49412 17.091 7.53712 17.004 7.62812C15.749 8.93112 14.49 10.2301 13.235 11.5331C13.168 11.6031 13.146 11.5891 13.095 11.5221C12.077 10.2121 11.057 8.90312 10.04 7.59212C9.986 7.52212 9.93 7.50012 9.844 7.50012C8.777 7.50212 7.71 7.50112 6.643 7.50212C6.603 7.50212 6.557 7.48512 6.517 7.52512C6.53 7.54312 6.542 7.56012 6.554 7.57712C8.082 9.55512 9.609 11.5331 11.139 13.5091C11.198 13.5851 11.209 13.6261 11.133 13.7041C9.764 15.1131 8.399 16.5251 7.034 17.9371L7.035 17.9391ZM8.059 8.30412C8.043 8.28412 8.03 8.26212 8.014 8.24012C8.048 8.19612 8.095 8.21612 8.135 8.21612C8.596 8.21412 9.057 8.21812 9.518 8.21312C9.621 8.21212 9.685 8.24212 9.746 8.32212C10.664 9.50912 11.585 10.6941 12.505 11.8791C13.993 13.7961 15.482 15.7121 16.97 17.6291C16.99 17.6551 17.008 17.6831 17.044 17.7351C16.504 17.7351 15.991 17.7351 15.478 17.7351C15.413 17.7351 15.387 17.6921 15.356 17.6521C14.356 16.3711 13.357 15.0891 12.357 13.8081C10.925 11.9731 9.492 10.1391 8.059 8.30412Z\" fill=\"#5C5B5C\"\/>\n<\/g>\n<\/svg>\n            <\/a>\n        <\/li>\n        \n\n        <li>\n            <a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/sharing\/share-offsite\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Flecercledeseconomistes.fr%2Fen%2Farticles%2Ffinance-en%2Fis-frances-public-debt-sustainable%2F\" title='Partager sur Linkedin' target='_blank'>\n                \n                <svg class=\"linkedin\" width=\"25\" height=\"26\" viewBox=\"0 0 25 26\" fill=\"none\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\">\n<path class=\"one\" d=\"M24.8649 0.587891H0.0258789V25.4269H24.8649V0.587891Z\" stroke=\"#5B5B5B\" stroke-miterlimit=\"10\"\/>\n<path class=\"two\" d=\"M18.1309 13.5412C18.1539 15.1962 18.144 16.8512 18.144 18.5062C18.1386 18.5827 18.1283 18.6588 18.1138 18.7342C17.4238 18.7342 16.743 18.7342 16.063 18.7342C15.826 18.7342 15.8902 18.5472 15.8892 18.4182C15.8892 17.2602 15.8892 16.1022 15.8892 14.9432C15.8892 14.8222 15.8892 14.7002 15.8892 14.5792C15.8913 14.3853 15.8548 14.1928 15.7817 14.0132C15.7087 13.8336 15.6002 13.6703 15.4634 13.5329C15.3265 13.3955 15.1637 13.2867 14.9844 13.2129C14.805 13.1391 14.6129 13.1018 14.4189 13.1032C14.005 13.0978 13.6058 13.2566 13.3086 13.5448C13.0114 13.833 12.8404 14.2272 12.833 14.6412C12.816 15.8412 12.8332 17.0412 12.8252 18.2482C12.8252 18.7912 12.8952 18.7332 12.3252 18.7362C11.7552 18.7392 11.1838 18.7362 10.5918 18.7362V11.1462H12.8198V12.1112C12.9688 11.9552 13.0519 11.8742 13.1279 11.7882C14.1279 10.6732 17.1092 10.5882 17.9092 12.5482C18.0427 12.863 18.1176 13.1994 18.1309 13.5412Z\" fill=\"#5B5B5B\"\/>\n<path class=\"three\"d=\"M8.09164 7.27812C8.36496 7.27255 8.63415 7.34853 8.86411 7.49635C9.09406 7.64417 9.27472 7.85713 9.38315 8.10808C9.49157 8.35903 9.52247 8.63659 9.4725 8.90535C9.42253 9.17412 9.29376 9.4219 9.10239 9.61711C8.91101 9.81232 8.66601 9.94611 8.39829 10.0014C8.13056 10.0567 7.85251 10.031 7.59946 9.92755C7.34641 9.82413 7.12974 9.64767 6.97739 9.42069C6.82504 9.19371 6.74385 8.92649 6.74399 8.65312C6.73999 8.47373 6.77175 8.29535 6.83774 8.12849C6.90373 7.96163 7.00265 7.80966 7.12827 7.68153C7.25388 7.5534 7.40367 7.4517 7.56918 7.38242C7.7347 7.31314 7.91221 7.27767 8.09164 7.27812Z\" fill=\"#5B5B5B\"\/>\n<path class=\"four\"d=\"M9.22314 11.1509V18.7169H7V11.1509H9.22314Z\" fill=\"#5B5B5B\"\/>\n<\/svg>            <\/a>\n\n        <\/li>\n        \n<\/ul>\n\n  \n    \n    \n<\/div>\n        <\/div>\n\n\n        \n\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\">\n<p><strong>At the last Ecofin meeting in Brussels on Thursday 7 December, the European Ministers of Economy and Finance renewed their call for a relaxation of the rules on budgetary austerity. Anne-Sophie Alsif explains why, despite the difficult economic context, French debt remains sustainable<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-medium\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>On 1 December 2023, the rating agency S&amp;P decided to maintain France&#8217;s rating at &#8220;AA&#8221;. Nevertheless, the outlook is negative due to the high level of the budget deficit and debt. This &#8220;non-deterioration&#8221; is justified by the agency through the government&#8217;s consolidation program, which is considered &#8220;robust&#8221;, as well as because of the implementation of various structural reforms such as those of pensions or unemployment insurance. However, this &#8220;negative&#8221; outlook raises questions about the sustainability of French public debt in the longer term in view of the significant deterioration in public finances, particularly since the Covid-21 crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-medium\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>France&#8217;s budgetary situation has indeed deteriorated particularly since 2019. Public debt increased from 97.4% of GDP in 2019 to 112.1% of GDP in 2023. Similarly, the government deficit increased from 2.1% of GDP in 2029 to 4.9% in 2023. This level of debt is higher than in many euro area countries. For example, public debt stands at 66.1% of GDP in Germany in 2023 and 92.2% of GDP in 2023 in the euro area. The level of French debt is therefore higher than the average for the countries in the zone. France is, in fact, far from respecting the Stability and Growth Pact recommending a debt level of 60% of GDP and a public deficit not exceeding 3% of GDP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-medium\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Individualized approach to reduction<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-medium\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The European Commission proposed to amend these fiscal rules on 26 April 2023. The ratios of 3% and 60% of GDP, enshrined in the treaties, are retained, but the stated aim is to move away from a one-size-fits-all approach for each Member State and to take into account the specific strengths and difficulties of the countries. Thus, for each Member State that fails to comply with one or other of the Maastricht criteria, the Commission will propose a four-year &#8220;reference budgetary path&#8221;, which can be extended by three years depending on the structural reforms developed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-medium\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Finally, France is also in primary deficit (-2.1% in 2019 to -3.3% in 2023) unlike other countries such as Italy traditionally in surplus: 1.6% of GDP in 2019. The country is expected to return to its primary surplus by 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-medium\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Protection against exogenous shocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-medium\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Nevertheless, despite this negative balance sheet, the French public debt remains sustainable because the country has various assets. France is located in the euro area which protects it from exogenous shocks. In the event of pressure on the debt burden, the European Central Bank can intervene, as was the case in 2010 during the sovereign debt crises. France could also benefit from the many structural adjustment mechanisms such as the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) in the event of a sustainability problem. In addition, the majority of French debt is held by French and Europeans. Finally, France&#8217;s collateral is important, such as the high level of the household savings rate (18% of GDI in 2023) and the strong capacity of the central government to raise taxes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-medium\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>In an unstable world, France has a situation of economic and political stability that few countries experience. This situation reassures investors. Above all, despite this high level of debt, France is opting for economic growth. Massive spending cuts are often recessionary. In 2023, the country has one of the highest growth rates and is escaping recession unlike countries such as Germany. Thus, growing to reduce debt seems to be France&#8217;s economic policy choice.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":5562,"parent":0,"template":"wp-custom-template-single-post-classic","cat-post-theme":[137],"cat-post-type":[135],"cat-blog-event-media-type-serie":[],"class_list":["post-6583","blog","type-blog","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","cat-post-theme-finance-en","cat-post-type-news"],"acf":{"is_featured_post":false,"display_twitter_hastags":false,"twitter_hastags":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Is France&#039;s public debt sustainable? - Le cercle des \u00e9conomistes<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/lecercledeseconomistes.fr\/en\/articles\/finance-en\/is-frances-public-debt-sustainable\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Is France&#039;s public debt sustainable? - Le cercle des \u00e9conomistes\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"At the last Ecofin meeting in Brussels on Thursday 7 December, the European Ministers of Economy and Finance renewed their call for a relaxation of the rules on budgetary austerity. 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