{"id":6623,"date":"2024-03-11T14:40:51","date_gmt":"2024-03-11T13:40:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lecercledeseconomistes.fr\/articles\/%cat-post-theme%\/does-commercial-real-estate-really-threaten-to-destabilize-banks-especially-internationally\/"},"modified":"2024-04-18T14:57:53","modified_gmt":"2024-04-18T12:57:53","slug":"does-commercial-real-estate-really-threaten-to-destabilize-banks-especially-internationally","status":"publish","type":"blog","link":"https:\/\/lecercledeseconomistes.fr\/en\/articles\/finance-en\/does-commercial-real-estate-really-threaten-to-destabilize-banks-especially-internationally\/","title":{"rendered":"Does commercial real estate really threaten to destabilize banks, especially internationally?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div class=\"wp-block-group section-content-layout-without-cover is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-not-stacked-on-mobile is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-9d6595d7 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\">\n<div class=\"block--post-meta\" >\n\n    <ul class=\"block--post-meta-list\">\n\n        \n            <li>\n                <p class=\"style-p-secondary-bold\">date<\/p>\n                <time datetime=\"2024-03-11T14:40:51+01:00\"class=\"style-p-secondary-normal\">11 mars 2024<\/time>\n            <\/li>\n\n            <li>\n                <p class=\"style-p-secondary-bold\">update<\/p>\n                <time datetime=\"2024-04-18T14:57:53+02:00\" class=\"style-p-secondary-normal\">18 avril 2024 \u00e0 14:57<\/time>\n            <\/li>\n\n            \n            <li>\n                <p class=\"style-p-secondary-bold\">author<\/p>\n\n                <div class=\"container__authors\">\n\n                    \n                        <a class=\"style-p-secondary-normal\" href=\"https:\/\/lecercledeseconomistes.fr\/en\/presentation\/members-and-authors\/authors\/anne-sophie-alsif\/\">Anne-Sophie Alsif<\/a>\n                     \n                    \n                <\/div>\n            <\/li>\n            \n        \n            \n            \n            \n\n            \n                <li>\n                    <p class=\"style-p-secondary-bold\">reading time<\/p>\n                                        <p class=\"style-p-secondary-normal\">2 minutes<\/p> \n                <\/li>\n\n            \n\n        \n        \n    <\/ul>\n\n    \n        \n        <div class=\"container-post-social-share\">\n\n            \n<div class=\"block--post-social-share\" >\n\n    \n    <ul class=\"container-socials\">\n\n        <li>\n            <a 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14.5792C15.8913 14.3853 15.8548 14.1928 15.7817 14.0132C15.7087 13.8336 15.6002 13.6703 15.4634 13.5329C15.3265 13.3955 15.1637 13.2867 14.9844 13.2129C14.805 13.1391 14.6129 13.1018 14.4189 13.1032C14.005 13.0978 13.6058 13.2566 13.3086 13.5448C13.0114 13.833 12.8404 14.2272 12.833 14.6412C12.816 15.8412 12.8332 17.0412 12.8252 18.2482C12.8252 18.7912 12.8952 18.7332 12.3252 18.7362C11.7552 18.7392 11.1838 18.7362 10.5918 18.7362V11.1462H12.8198V12.1112C12.9688 11.9552 13.0519 11.8742 13.1279 11.7882C14.1279 10.6732 17.1092 10.5882 17.9092 12.5482C18.0427 12.863 18.1176 13.1994 18.1309 13.5412Z\" fill=\"#5B5B5B\"\/>\n<path class=\"three\"d=\"M8.09164 7.27812C8.36496 7.27255 8.63415 7.34853 8.86411 7.49635C9.09406 7.64417 9.27472 7.85713 9.38315 8.10808C9.49157 8.35903 9.52247 8.63659 9.4725 8.90535C9.42253 9.17412 9.29376 9.4219 9.10239 9.61711C8.91101 9.81232 8.66601 9.94611 8.39829 10.0014C8.13056 10.0567 7.85251 10.031 7.59946 9.92755C7.34641 9.82413 7.12974 9.64767 6.97739 9.42069C6.82504 9.19371 6.74385 8.92649 6.74399 8.65312C6.73999 8.47373 6.77175 8.29535 6.83774 8.12849C6.90373 7.96163 7.00265 7.80966 7.12827 7.68153C7.25388 7.5534 7.40367 7.4517 7.56918 7.38242C7.7347 7.31314 7.91221 7.27767 8.09164 7.27812Z\" fill=\"#5B5B5B\"\/>\n<path class=\"four\"d=\"M9.22314 11.1509V18.7169H7V11.1509H9.22314Z\" fill=\"#5B5B5B\"\/>\n<\/svg>            <\/a>\n\n        <\/li>\n        \n<\/ul>\n\n  \n    \n    \n<\/div>\n        <\/div>\n\n\n        \n\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\">\n<p><strong>The commercial real estate market is experiencing significant economic difficulties. This puts the creditor banks at risk for the debts associated with these assets. Anne-Sophie Alsif explains why official communications from central banks and governments point to a possible \u2013 but still limited \u2013 systemic risk.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-medium\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>In the United States and the euro area, commercial real estate is showing a significant loss of profitability as well as a decline in the number of transactions. According to the European Central Bank&#8217;s Financial Stability Report published at the end of 2023, rising interest rates and general uncertainty, combined with the inherent illiquidity of commercial real estate markets, have led to  <strong>a 47% decrease in the number of commercial real estate transactions in the euro area during the 1st half of 2023 (year-on-year).<\/strong>  According to the IMF, in the United States \u2013 the world&#8217;s No. 1 market \u2013 prices have fallen by 11% since the Fed began raising interest rates in March 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-medium\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The least well-placed assets with the worst energy performance are the most affected. According to the ECB, the outlook for the non-prime market is particularly negative. According to Immostat, the immediately available supply of offices in Paris has reached an unprecedented level. Similar phenomena are observed in other countries such as China. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in the summer of 2023, the office vacancy rate reached an all-time high of 18%. According to the ECB, the decline in profitability exposes borrowers who own commercial real estate to potential debt service risks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-medium\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Regional banks&#8217; exposure to commercial real estate<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-medium\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Although generally small, banks&#8217; exposure to these assets can pose a stability risk, particularly in the United States, particularly via regional banks.<\/strong>  Within the euro area, banks have around 10% of loans exposed to commercial real estate. However, the weaknesses of this portfolio have been proven. Moody&#8217;s, for example, has carried out numerous downgrades for real estate companies, regularly referring to the deterioration of debt-to-asset ratios. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, about $1.2 trillion of commercial real estate debt in the U.S. will mature by 2026 (25% office and retail), most of which is owned by banks. In addition, in the US, risk is concentrated in regional banks. According to Goldman Sachs, banks hold 50 percent of the country&#8217;s real estate debt, 75 percent of which is concentrated in small and medium-sized banks \u2014 almost 40 percent of the total. According to the IMF, these regional banks are five times more exposed than the big banks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-medium\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>While not systemic, the risks could exacerbate an imbalance foreign to the real estate sector.  <\/strong>According to the ECB, &#8220;poor performance in the commercial real estate market can significantly amplify an adverse scenario&#8221;, increasing the likelihood that the banking system will suffer systemically important losses. In addition, such an event would weaken other parts of the financial system that are heavily exposed to residential real estate, such as investment funds and insurers. In the U.S., regional banks would face significant declines in the value of commercial real estate loans. This would then pose the risk of a credit crunch that would extend beyond real estate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-medium\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>All in all, while banks are indeed exposed to a risk related to commercial real estate, it appears that this risk is indirect. A significant shock to another asset class could thus be aggravated by the destabilization of the commercial real estate market. These systemic risks still seem remote, although they should not be overlooked.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":6622,"parent":0,"template":"wp-custom-template-single-post-classic","cat-post-theme":[137],"cat-post-type":[135],"cat-blog-event-media-type-serie":[],"class_list":["post-6623","blog","type-blog","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","cat-post-theme-finance-en","cat-post-type-news"],"acf":{"is_featured_post":false,"display_twitter_hastags":false,"twitter_hastags":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Does commercial real estate really threaten to destabilize banks, especially internationally? - Le cercle des \u00e9conomistes<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/lecercledeseconomistes.fr\/en\/articles\/finance-en\/does-commercial-real-estate-really-threaten-to-destabilize-banks-especially-internationally\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Does commercial real estate really threaten to destabilize banks, especially internationally? - Le cercle des \u00e9conomistes\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The commercial real estate market is experiencing significant economic difficulties. This puts the creditor banks at risk for the debts associated with these assets. Anne-Sophie Alsif explains why official communications from central banks and governments point to a possible \u2013 but still limited \u2013 systemic risk. 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This puts the creditor banks at risk for the debts associated with these assets. Anne-Sophie Alsif explains why official communications from central banks and governments point to a possible \u2013 but still limited \u2013 systemic risk. 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