{"id":7182,"date":"2024-06-17T10:48:56","date_gmt":"2024-06-17T08:48:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lecercledeseconomistes.fr\/articles\/%cat-post-theme%\/will-the-ecb-drag-the-fed-along\/"},"modified":"2024-06-24T10:57:29","modified_gmt":"2024-06-24T08:57:29","slug":"will-the-ecb-drag-the-fed-along","status":"publish","type":"blog","link":"https:\/\/lecercledeseconomistes.fr\/en\/articles\/finance-en\/will-the-ecb-drag-the-fed-along\/","title":{"rendered":"Will the ECB drag the Fed along"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div class=\"wp-block-group section-content-layout-without-cover is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-not-stacked-on-mobile is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-9d6595d7 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\">\n<div class=\"block--post-meta\" >\n\n    <ul class=\"block--post-meta-list\">\n\n        \n            <li>\n                <p class=\"style-p-secondary-bold\">date<\/p>\n                <time datetime=\"2024-06-17T10:48:56+02:00\"class=\"style-p-secondary-normal\">17 juin 2024<\/time>\n            <\/li>\n\n            <li>\n                <p class=\"style-p-secondary-bold\">update<\/p>\n                <time datetime=\"2024-06-24T10:57:29+02:00\" class=\"style-p-secondary-normal\">24 juin 2024 \u00e0 10:57<\/time>\n            <\/li>\n\n            \n            <li>\n                <p class=\"style-p-secondary-bold\">author<\/p>\n\n                <div class=\"container__authors\">\n\n                    \n                        <a class=\"style-p-secondary-normal\" href=\"https:\/\/lecercledeseconomistes.fr\/en\/presentation\/members-and-authors\/members\/christian-de-boissieu\/\">Christian de Boissieu<\/a>\n                     \n                    \n                <\/div>\n            <\/li>\n            \n        \n            \n            \n            \n\n            \n  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18.4751C18.491 18.4601 18.484 18.4461 18.475 18.4331C17.967 17.7801 17.459 17.1271 16.95 16.4741C15.857 15.0701 14.764 13.6651 13.669 12.2631C13.615 12.1941 13.608 12.1541 13.676 12.0861C13.953 11.8081 14.221 11.5231 14.493 11.2411C15.534 10.1631 16.576 9.08512 17.617 8.00612C17.771 7.84612 17.924 7.68612 18.099 7.50212C17.814 7.50212 17.56 7.50912 17.308 7.49912C17.177 7.49412 17.091 7.53712 17.004 7.62812C15.749 8.93112 14.49 10.2301 13.235 11.5331C13.168 11.6031 13.146 11.5891 13.095 11.5221C12.077 10.2121 11.057 8.90312 10.04 7.59212C9.986 7.52212 9.93 7.50012 9.844 7.50012C8.777 7.50212 7.71 7.50112 6.643 7.50212C6.603 7.50212 6.557 7.48512 6.517 7.52512C6.53 7.54312 6.542 7.56012 6.554 7.57712C8.082 9.55512 9.609 11.5331 11.139 13.5091C11.198 13.5851 11.209 13.6261 11.133 13.7041C9.764 15.1131 8.399 16.5251 7.034 17.9371L7.035 17.9391ZM8.059 8.30412C8.043 8.28412 8.03 8.26212 8.014 8.24012C8.048 8.19612 8.095 8.21612 8.135 8.21612C8.596 8.21412 9.057 8.21812 9.518 8.21312C9.621 8.21212 9.685 8.24212 9.746 8.32212C10.664 9.50912 11.585 10.6941 12.505 11.8791C13.993 13.7961 15.482 15.7121 16.97 17.6291C16.99 17.6551 17.008 17.6831 17.044 17.7351C16.504 17.7351 15.991 17.7351 15.478 17.7351C15.413 17.7351 15.387 17.6921 15.356 17.6521C14.356 16.3711 13.357 15.0891 12.357 13.8081C10.925 11.9731 9.492 10.1391 8.059 8.30412Z\" fill=\"#5C5B5C\"\/>\n<\/g>\n<\/svg>\n            <\/a>\n        <\/li>\n        \n\n        <li>\n            <a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/sharing\/share-offsite\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Flecercledeseconomistes.fr%2Fen%2Farticles%2Ffinance-en%2Fwill-the-ecb-drag-the-fed-along%2F\" title='Partager sur Linkedin' target='_blank'>\n                \n                <svg class=\"linkedin\" width=\"25\" height=\"26\" viewBox=\"0 0 25 26\" fill=\"none\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\">\n<path class=\"one\" d=\"M24.8649 0.587891H0.0258789V25.4269H24.8649V0.587891Z\" stroke=\"#5B5B5B\" stroke-miterlimit=\"10\"\/>\n<path class=\"two\" d=\"M18.1309 13.5412C18.1539 15.1962 18.144 16.8512 18.144 18.5062C18.1386 18.5827 18.1283 18.6588 18.1138 18.7342C17.4238 18.7342 16.743 18.7342 16.063 18.7342C15.826 18.7342 15.8902 18.5472 15.8892 18.4182C15.8892 17.2602 15.8892 16.1022 15.8892 14.9432C15.8892 14.8222 15.8892 14.7002 15.8892 14.5792C15.8913 14.3853 15.8548 14.1928 15.7817 14.0132C15.7087 13.8336 15.6002 13.6703 15.4634 13.5329C15.3265 13.3955 15.1637 13.2867 14.9844 13.2129C14.805 13.1391 14.6129 13.1018 14.4189 13.1032C14.005 13.0978 13.6058 13.2566 13.3086 13.5448C13.0114 13.833 12.8404 14.2272 12.833 14.6412C12.816 15.8412 12.8332 17.0412 12.8252 18.2482C12.8252 18.7912 12.8952 18.7332 12.3252 18.7362C11.7552 18.7392 11.1838 18.7362 10.5918 18.7362V11.1462H12.8198V12.1112C12.9688 11.9552 13.0519 11.8742 13.1279 11.7882C14.1279 10.6732 17.1092 10.5882 17.9092 12.5482C18.0427 12.863 18.1176 13.1994 18.1309 13.5412Z\" fill=\"#5B5B5B\"\/>\n<path class=\"three\"d=\"M8.09164 7.27812C8.36496 7.27255 8.63415 7.34853 8.86411 7.49635C9.09406 7.64417 9.27472 7.85713 9.38315 8.10808C9.49157 8.35903 9.52247 8.63659 9.4725 8.90535C9.42253 9.17412 9.29376 9.4219 9.10239 9.61711C8.91101 9.81232 8.66601 9.94611 8.39829 10.0014C8.13056 10.0567 7.85251 10.031 7.59946 9.92755C7.34641 9.82413 7.12974 9.64767 6.97739 9.42069C6.82504 9.19371 6.74385 8.92649 6.74399 8.65312C6.73999 8.47373 6.77175 8.29535 6.83774 8.12849C6.90373 7.96163 7.00265 7.80966 7.12827 7.68153C7.25388 7.5534 7.40367 7.4517 7.56918 7.38242C7.7347 7.31314 7.91221 7.27767 8.09164 7.27812Z\" fill=\"#5B5B5B\"\/>\n<path class=\"four\"d=\"M9.22314 11.1509V18.7169H7V11.1509H9.22314Z\" fill=\"#5B5B5B\"\/>\n<\/svg>            <\/a>\n\n        <\/li>\n        \n<\/ul>\n\n  \n    \n    \n<\/div>\n        <\/div>\n\n\n        \n\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\">\n<p><strong><strong>At the beginning of June, the European Central Bank began to lower its key rates, without waiting for a move from its American counterpart, the Fed. Is Europe in the process of emancipating itself from American monetary policy or, on the contrary, can it set the tone in this area? Christian de Boissieu explains why such a scenario is not likely.<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-normal\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Thus, on June 12, the Fed unanimously decided by the members of its Monetary Policy Committee (FOMC) not to touch its key rate, the interest rate on federal funds, maintained in the %-5,50% range. The US central bank justifies its caution with several arguments: inflation, gross but also excluding volatile components (agricultural and energy prices), as well as inflation expectations still remain significantly above the 2% per year target; Growth remains strong (forecast for this year close to 3%), as does the labour market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-normal\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Wait and see! Now, the first cut in the key rate is expected in September, and the futures markets, which are not necessarily right, are anticipating a total of two cuts by the end of 2024, less than expected just a few weeks ago. The Fed is pragmatic, it does not want to tie its hands given the degree of uncertainty. Forward guidance of rates, which was at the heart of unconventional monetary policy, has now been forgotten on both sides of the Atlantic. And the Fed insists on the continuation of its sales of part of its bond portfolio, and therefore on the reduction of its balance sheet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-normal\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">No ripple effect on the Fed<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-normal\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>We can therefore see that the start of the ECB&#8217;s 25 basis point cut in its key rates on 6 June (the deposit facility rate rose from 4% to 3.75%) has not caused any knock-on effect on the Fed. Even before we saw it, we could have suspected it given the asymmetries in favour of the United States and the dollar. US monetary policy is not lagging behind monetary decisions taken abroad! What is new in this case is the symmetrical side. It is that the ECB has let its guard down without waiting for a prior initiative on the American side.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-normal\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>For years, and for both upward and downward movements, the ECB has most often acted after the Fed. With a significant delay that has frequently been criticized. For example, after the subprime crisis and the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the ECB took a long time to implement a key rate close to zero.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-normal\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A low-pressure zone<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-normal\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Where does the ECB&#8217;s current boldness come from, and what will be the foreseeable consequences and consequences? Despite globalization and the multiple interdependencies it engenders, the American economic cycle and the European cycle do not coincide. As we have seen, growth rates, inflation rates, unemployment rates&#8230; are different. As Europe remains generally speaking an area of &#8220;low pressure&#8221;, i.e. poor growth and productivity performance compared to the United States, the ECB can make its contribution to the revival of activity provided that its main objective &#8211; price stability &#8211; is not threatened. It considered that this condition had been met thanks to the disinflation that is beginning, even if it acknowledged that the evolution of inflation in the coming months is likely to &#8220;bump&#8221;.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-normal\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The significantly positive gap between the Fed&#8217;s and the ECB&#8217;s key rates has therefore widened since the ECB&#8217;s initiative of 6 June. So what? Three remarks. This spread could return to the level before June 6 if the Fed starts its cut in September. The ECB could cut its key rates again in the autumn, but the Fed would probably be in the same tempo&#8230; Not out of a desire to stick closely to the ECB&#8217;s decisions, but for purely American reasons. Secondly, all this only indirectly and partially regulates movements in long-term rates. Given the weight of the US financial markets, the causality continues to shift from US to European long rates, and not the other way around. And the spreads between long-term rates within the euro area are now more sensitive to the European and French elections than to other influences (see the widening of France&#8217;s spreads).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-normal\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Finally, we cannot omit the exchange rate argument. The ECB&#8217;s unilateral initiative could have pushed the euro back against the dollar, and in doing so accentuated inflation in the euro zone through the increase in the cost of imports. This was feared by Robert Holzmann, the governor of the central bank of Austria, the only one to have voted against the June 6 decision at the ECB. In practice, the euro has since fallen slightly, more as a result of the results of the European elections than as a result of the widening of the policy rate differential on both sides of the Atlantic.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-normal\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A long-term wait-and-see Fed<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-normal\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Clearly, this differential would have to widen significantly, in which case the ECB would be much more reactive in the direction of easing rates than the Fed, for an exchange rate effect, i.e. a significant decline in the euro, to appear.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer is-style-spacer-normal\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>This is not the most likely scenario between now and the end of 2024: the Fed will not remain in a wait-and-see attitude for long. It will gradually loosen the monetary constraint, not because of the ECB&#8217;s initiatives but for reasons of its own. On the American side, the doctrine of &#8220;benign neglect&#8221; with regard to the exchange rate of the dollar, at least in a wide range of values for this rate, is far from having disappeared!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":7181,"parent":0,"template":"wp-custom-template-single-post-classic","cat-post-theme":[137],"cat-post-type":[135],"cat-blog-event-media-type-serie":[],"class_list":["post-7182","blog","type-blog","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","cat-post-theme-finance-en","cat-post-type-news"],"acf":{"is_featured_post":false,"display_twitter_hastags":false,"twitter_hastags":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Will the ECB drag the Fed along - Le cercle des \u00e9conomistes<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/lecercledeseconomistes.fr\/en\/articles\/finance-en\/will-the-ecb-drag-the-fed-along\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Will the ECB drag the Fed along - Le cercle des \u00e9conomistes\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"At the beginning of June, the European Central Bank began to lower its key rates, without waiting for a move from its American counterpart, the Fed. 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Is Europe in the process of emancipating itself from American monetary policy or, on the contrary, can it set the tone in this area? 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